- What: UFC 299 Co-Main Event
- Who: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis
- Date: Saturday, March 9, 2024
- Location: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET) Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET) PPV Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ Pay-Per-View)
The UFC bantamweight title is on the line in the main event of the UFC 299 pay-per-view. In that bout, UFC 135-pound champion Sean O’Malley faces Marlon “Chito” Vera in his first defense of the title he won in August 2023 with a second-round knockout of Aljamain Sterling. In the evening’s co-main event, former interim UFC lightweight champion Dustin Poirier faces the rising Benoit Saint Denis. Here is some background on Poirier and Saint Denis before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 299.
Dustin Poirier (29-8-0-1) is the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings. Poirier is 1-2 in his past three fights, with a November 2022 win over Michael Chandler bookended by stoppage defeats to Charles Oliveira in a lightweight title fight and Justin Gaethje in a BMF title bout. Poirier last fought in July 2023.
Benoit Saint Denis (13-1-0-1) is 5-1 in the UFC. His only UFC loss was his promotional debut in October 2021 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a welterweight scrap. Denis is coming off a November 2023 knockout win over Matt Frevola. Saint Denis has earned fight-night bonuses in each of his past two outings. All five of his UFC victories have been via stoppage. He is the No. 12 ranked lightweight in the UFC.
Before we look at the best bets for Poirier vs. Saint Denis on the UFC 299 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our picks for the UFC 299 main event.
UFC 299 co-main event: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis betting picks
Dustin Poirier betting breakdown
Dustin Poirier is one of the most exciting fighters in the history of the UFC’s lightweight division, but at 35, with some hard fights in his past, it’s only fair to start to wonder if Poirier’s best days are behind him. The native of Lafayette, Louisiana, has been facing top competition in the UFC for most of his 14 years with the WEC/UFC, and his 28 fights under the UFC banner make him one of the most prolific fighters in the history of the promotion.
Poirier is an outstanding striker with high-level boxing skills. A thoughtful but aggressive fighter, Poirier is well-trained. He uses a high striking output while mixing his wrestling and grappling skills when appropriate. He is defensively sound in the striking department, but when he finds an opening, he will pounce and increase his output and aggression, which can get him in trouble against a patient opponent with a high fight IQ.
Poirier lands an average of 5.49 significant strikes per minute, and he has an accuracy rate of 50 percent. He absorbs an average of 4.30 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 53 percent. Poirier lands an average of 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 36 percent. His takedown defense is 63 percent, and he averages 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes of action.
Benoit Saint Denis
UFC 299 marks a big step up in competition for the 28-year-old Benoit Saint Denis. This bout marks his second fight against a ranked opponent after dispatching the then-ranked 14 Matt Frevola in November. The French fighter impressed in that contest, ending Frevola’s night in 91 seconds via a perfectly timed head kick.
Saint Denis is a well-rounded fighter, with all of his victories coming through knockout (four) or submission (nine). He has not gone past the second round in a win since during his career. Saint Denis is a measured striker. He stalks his opponent in the cage and looks to back them into the fence. Once his foe is trapped, the French fighter unloads flurries of strikes in the hopes of picking up a knockout win. In open space, Saint Denis fights almost flat-footed, advancing deliberately while looking to uncork damaging strikes.
Saint Denis tends to drop his defensive guard when he feels he is in control. His sometimes plodding footwork in the open is also a worry because he provides a stationary target.
Saint Denis lands an average of 5.53 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 52 percent. He absorbs a concerning 5.20 significant strikes per minute, and his defensive striking number of 44 percent is worrying. Saint Denis averages 4.55 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 36 percent. His takedown defense is 66 percent, and he averages 1.4 submissions per 15 minutes.
Best Bets: UFC 299 co-main event: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Both these men are finishers, so it will not be a surprise if the winner picks up a stoppage victory at UFC 299. Looking at who will win this fight is interesting. Saint Denis could be a future title contender, but facing someone as skilled and experienced as Poirier this early in his UFC run might be too much too soon for the rising fighter. Saint Denis is a test for Poirier, but he doesn’t present anything that Poirier hasn’t seen before. Look for the former UFC interim champ to use his accuracy and boxing skills to tag the hittable Saint Denis, and pick up the stoppage win. The betting pick is for Dustin Poirier to beat Benoit Saint Denis by knockout in the second half of their UFC 299 co-main event scrap.
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