- What: UFC 301 Main Event
- Who: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
- Date: Saturday, May 4, 2024
- Location: Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN2, ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The UFC returns to Brazil for an ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view for the first time in over a year on Saturday, May 4, 2024, for UFC 301. The card’s main event is a 125-pound title fight between UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg. Erceg enters the contest as the No. 10 fighter in the official UFC flyweight rankings. Here is some background on the competitors before we look at the betting breakdown for the main event of UFC 301.
Alexandre Pantoja (27-5) has not fought in his hometown of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil since he won the RFA flyweight title in December 2014. Pantoja has an 11-3 UFC record. He is riding a five-fight winning streak. The 34-year-old won the UFC flyweight title in July 2023 with a split decision over Brandon Moreno. He defended his belt in December with a unanimous decision over Brandon Royval.
Steve Erceg (12-1) is 3-0 in the UFC. Erceg, who hails from Perth, Australia, is on an 11-fight winning streak. His only loss came in September 2017 in his second pro fight. The 28-year-old Erceg is coming off a knockout win over Matt Schnell in March of this year.
Before we look at the best bets for the Pantoja vs. Erceg matchup on the UFC 301 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 301 main event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg betting picks
Alexandre Pantoja betting breakdown
It took Alexandre Pantoja some time to find his footing in the UFC. He went 6-3 in his first nine fights with the promotion, but since then he has gone 5-0 with three decision wins and two submission victories. Pantoja has some of the best cardio in the UFC. He sets a fast pace from the fight’s opening and can keep fighting at that level for a full 25 minutes. Along with his pace, Pantoja relies on his pressure. He pushes forward and likes to get his opponent fighting off his back foot. Pantoja has power in his strikes and is comfortable on the feet, but his goal is to use his striking ability to get the fight to the mat. The champ is a high-level grappler who uses his pressure and ground strikes to set up his submission attempts.
Pantoja averages 4.32 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 49 percent. His striking defense is 50 percent, and he gets hit 3.90 times per minute. Pantoja actively looks for takedowns, averaging 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 49 percent. He went eight for 14 in takedowns in his most recent outing and racked up 15:51 of control time in a 25-minute contest. Pantoja’s takedown defense is 67 percent, and he picks up 1.0 submissions per 15 minutes of Octagon time.
Steve Erceg betting breakdown
It was a bit of a surprise to learn that Steve Erceg was getting a title shot after just three UFC bouts, but his “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockout of Matt Schnell in March was impressive enough to move him up some other higher-ranked flyweights who did not impress the UFC brass in recent outings.
Erceg is a striker. He has high-level boxing skills and works well off counters, something that could work in his favor against an opponent who moves forward as aggressively as Pantoja. Erceg is comfortable at range and in the clinch. When he is tied up with his opponent, he uses knees to the body and can unload sneaky fast elbows on the break. He employs slick head movement when he is on defense.
If there is a knock against Erceg, it is that he can get a bit excited when he senses he is close to a finish. He has been tagged at these moments. Another concern for Erceg is that he has not gone five rounds in his career, and that’s a big ask against a foe with a gas tank like Pantoja.
Erceg averages 4.57 significant strikes per minute and connects on 48 percent of his attempts. His defensive striking is 55 percent, and he absorbs 3.64 significant strikes per minute. On the grappling side, Erceg lands 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown success rate is 30 percent, while his takedown defense is 77 percent. Erceg averages 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes.
Best Bets for UFC 301 main event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg is a live betting underdog. If Alexandre Pantoja allows Erceg to get comfortable on his feet and work from the outside, Erceg could end the fight with a knockout victory. If one is looking for a value bet at UFC 301, it is to pick Erceg to win by knockout. His boxing skills are that good. However, the expectation is that Pantoja will look to string together takedown attempts to get the fight to the mat. He has 18 takedowns in his past four fights and close to 30 minutes of control time in those outings. Pantoja’s pace and grappling will prove to be too much for Erceg in this matchup. The betting pick is for Alexandre Pantoja to beat Steve Erceg by submission in the second half of UFC 301’s main event.
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