- What: UFC 301 Co-Main Event
- Who: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
- Date: Saturday, May 4, 2024
- Location: Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN2, ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The UFC returns to Brazil for an ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view for the first time in over a year on Saturday, May 4, 2024, for UFC 301. The card’s main event is a 125-pound title fight between UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg. Before that fight takes place, former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo returns to action for the first time since August 2022 to face Jonathan Martinez in a bantamweight scrap. Here is some background on the UFC 301 co-main event competitors before we look at the betting breakdown for the main event of UFC 301.
Jonathan Martinez (19-4) is on a six-fight winning streak with the UFC. The 30-year-old American is the No. 13 fighter in the official UFC bantamweight rankings. Martinez is coming off an October TKO win over Adrian Yanez.
Jose Aldo (31-8) last fought in August 2022, dropping a unanimous decision to Merab Dvalishvili. The 37-year-old Brazilian held the UFC featherweight title twice. During his first reign, Aldo defended the title seven times. He had a 15-fight WEC/UFC winning streak before losing to Conor McGregor in December 2015.
Before we look at the best bets for the Martinez vs. Aldo matchup on the UFC 301 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the UFC 301 main event.
UFC 301 co-main event: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo betting picks
Jonathan Martinez betting breakdown
Jonathan Martinez broke into the UFC bantamweight rankings in early 2023 when he pulled off an upset victory, scoring a unanimous decision victory over Said Nurmagomedov. He then moved up those rankings in October with his “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning leg-kick TKO win over Adrian Yanez in a fight that was a pick-em. Both men entered the Octagon that night with betting odds of -110.
Martinez is a well-rounded fighter, but what he is known for is his striking. Martinez, who fights out of the southpaw stance, has incredibly fast kicks. He tends to concentrate on landing leg kicks, and he is one of two fighters in the UFC with more than one TKO via leg kicks, but he can surprise his foe by launching head kicks once he has established his leg kicks. In his most recent win. Martinez landed 29 of his 36 total landed significant strikes to the legs of Adrian Yanez on his way to a stoppage victory. His use of leg kicks in that fight was because he hurt Yanez early with those kicks, and was then able to exploit Yanez lack of defense throughout the fight. In his fight prior to the Yanez bout, Martinez landed 18 leg kicks against Said Nurmagomedov, which accounted for 47 percent of his landed strikes. He landed 18 percent to Nurmagomedov’s body and 34 percent to his head.
Martinez lands 4.64 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 50 percent. His defensive striking is 58 percent and he gets hit 3.76 times per minute. Martinez averages 0.44 takedowns per minute with a success rate of 41 percent. He defends 69 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts and averages 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes.
Jose Aldo betting breakdown
Jose Aldo is a legend. One of the best MMA featherweights ever, he went 2-5 between June 2017 and July 2020 while fighting some of the best 145 and 135-pound fighters in the UFC. Aldo then went on a three-fight winning streak after taking a small step back in the level of competition before he faced Merab Dvalishvili in 2022. Aldo lost that fight by unanimous decision and retired shortly after. This leads to the question of why Aldo is returning to UFC 301. Is it because he doesn’t want to go out on a loss, or is it because the UFC brought him in to get additional name recognition on a somewhat underwhelming pay-per-view card?
Aldo, once known for his powerful leg kicks, moved away from those strikes the deeper he got into his UFC career. Instead, he tended to focus on the head and body with his strikes, much to the chagrin of fans who had followed him from his days under the WEC banner. That’s not to say that Aldo’s striking is bad, it’s not, it’s to say that his leg kicks were devastatingly effective.
The former UFC champ lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 46 percent. Aldo’s defensive striking is 60 percent, and he gets tagged 3.74 times per minute. Aldo averages 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a success rate of 54 percent. His takedown defense is 91 percent, and he averages 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes.
Best Bets for UFC 301 co-main event: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
Jose Aldo fights out of an orthodox stance, and that could be a problem if the younger and faster Jonathan Martinez can establish his leg kicks and range early. If he can slow the aging Aldo down in the early moments of UFC 301, Martinez has the potential to control this matchup. I’m also worried about Aldo’s reasons for returning from retirement at 37. That he accepted this fight in mid-March makes me wonder how invested the UFC Hall-of-Famer is in this matchup.
The betting pick is for Jonathan Martinez to win via decision. His leg kicks, range control, speed, and youth all go toward picking him to beat Jose Aldo.
See below a list of reliable sportsbooks and choose the best one for you.
