Germany is hosting this year’s European Championship and according to tradition, they will open up the festivities with the first game of the tournament. Drawn on the opposite side of Scotland in their first group fixture, it is, on paper, a favorable matchup for the Germans. But Scott McTominay and co. have earned their place in the Euros after a strong qualifying campaign and will fight hard to make their country proud. Read on for an expert Germany vs Scotland prediction and explore tips and stats for Euro betting in 2024.
- Germany vs Scotland
- 2024 UEFA European Football Championship
- Friday, June 14, 2024
- 3 PM EST
- FOX, FuboTV, VIX, TelevisaUnivision
- Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Germany vs Scotland Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Germany are prohibitive favorites to win the first game of the tournament as (-348) favorites against Scotland. Scotland are given just an implied probability of 9.1% to upset the host nation. The Tartan Army are (+1000) underdogs. A draw is lined at (+500).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about UEFA Euro 2024 betting.
No Qualifying Necessary for Hosts
Germany has been a story of disappointment in international tournaments since they won the World Cup in 2014. They finished last in their group in the 2018 version of the global competition and were booted by Germany in the Round of 16 of Euro 2020.
In the 2022 World Cup, Germany failed to advance from their group stage despite earning a win and a draw, losing out to Spain on goal difference. Japan was the surprise of that group stage, getting 1st place over Spain and Germany with a chaotic style that was difficult to adjust to.
Now entering the 2024 European Championship as hosts, they were exempt from qualifying and were given an automatic bid. While this may benefit them on paper, it was highly unlikely they would ever fail to qualify, and now they have had no experience under their new manager in a competitive setting. Friendlies against top countries around the world like Brazil, Netherlands, England, and USA can attempt to replicate that, but we don’t really know how this team will do under the bright lights until Friday.
It is the last dance for the legendary German midfielder Toni Kroos this summer. Kroos announced his retirement from professional football following Euro 2024, yet still appears to be in his prime. Kroos played an integral role in Real Madrid’s double as LaLiga and Champions League winners, and is now set to do the same for Germany. If they win the Euro this summer, Kroos could potentially win a Ballon d’Or in his swan season, a fitting conclusion to the story of one of the greatest midfielders ever to step foot on the pitch.
Will Scotland Upset Host Nation?
Scotland set alarms off across the globe when they defeated Spain 2-0 at Hampden Park last year. The Tartan Army defeated a Spanish side that had won 40 of their previous 45 European Championship qualifying matches, continuing their luck in results over Georgia and Norway.
However, their excellent performances may have been due to fortune more than anything. They scored an incredible 17 goals off of just 9.28 xG. While some of this may have been due to game state, as they often sat back in a low block once grabbing a lead, but a discrepancy that wide must beg the question of how worthy Scotland really is of being here.
Kieran Tierney and the beloved Scott McTominay will be critical in changing that narrative and proving doubters of Scotland wrong. Tierney is a left-back from Real Sociedad by way of Arsenal, while McTominay plays midfield for English side Manchester United. If they are to continue to outperform their xG statistics, Scotland may be able to sneak into the knockout stages.
Germany vs Scotland Prediction and Free Euro Betting Pick
Nerves will be high in Munich on Friday in both camps. Scotland is participating in just their 10th ever Euro match, playing nine across 3 appearances with no advancements from the group stage. Meanwhile, Germany will have been heavily preparing and anticipating this tournament since their shocking early exit from the World Cup in 2022.
Nagelsmann will be under some pressure to earn results as well, with many fans remembering his unfortunate departure from Bayern Munich. He will make his competitive debut for Germany in Bayern’s very own home stadium, Allianz Arena.
Opening matches of international tournaments have a history of being low-scoring, and I believe this game will be no exception. If Germany is to score, the floodgates should open as Scotland is not built well to make a comeback, forcing turnovers and running counter-attacks. Instead, they will look to keep this game as close as possible and hope one goal will be enough. And with Germany possibly skittish and lacking in form amidst a stretch of no competitive activity, goals may come at a premium early.
For these reasons, I will target the goals market in the first half. A line of under 1 is available at (+122), a very generous number in my opinion. If you are feeling more adventurous, you can take under 0.5 goals at (+240) on some books. But I will defer to the more conservative number and protect myself in case nerves lead to a costly mistake by either side. Bet under 1 first half total goals for a full unit.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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