The men’s singles tennis event of the 2024 Summer Olympics begins this weekend in Paris. Carlos Alcaraz, coming off back-to-back majors titles, is a big favorite to win the gold medal, but Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic should give him a good run for his money. The matches will all be best-of-3 and on clay, the first time the Olympics have been on a clay surface since Barcelona hosted in 1992. Read on for an expert men’s Olympic tennis prediction and insights into this year’s Olympic tennis betting.
- Men’s singles tennis
- 2024 Summer Olympics
- July 27 to August 3
- Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France
- Peacock, NBC Sports
2024 Men’s Olympic Tennis Betting Odds
Reigning Wimbledon and French Open champion Carlos Alcaraz is an odds-on favorite at Bovada to win the Gold Medal for Spain in the men’s singles Olympics tennis event this summer. Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic follow behind at (+300). Alexander Zverev, Rafael Nadal, and Casper Ruud make up the dark horses in the (+650) to (+1400) range.
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Can Alcaraz Outrun Such Short Odds?
Carlos Alcaraz has long been known as the successor to Rafael Nadal as the “King of Clay.” While the comparison was made early in his career in part because of their shared Spanish heritage, his skill contributes to the link as well. His dominance on the surface has been exemplified with a victory at the French Open this season, also the site of this year’s Olympic Games. Now 12-3 on clay this season and 33-6 overall, his numbers are just getting better.
Alcaraz’s career mark on clay is 138-34, a remarkable record for a recently-turned 21-year-old. The only drawback for Alcaraz in this tournament is that he thrives in 5-set matches, winning an absurd 12 of 13 matches that go to a deciding 5th set. That cardio advantage has shown itself in the majors this season, but will be unavailable to be leveraged in the best-of-3 format here at the Olympics.
Alcaraz has also had good luck against some of the top competitors he may see in this draw, such as Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic. His head-to-head records are positive against each potential opponent. A fully-confident Alcaraz on his preferred surface and in prime form sets up for a busy week for the Spaniard.
Zverev Consistently Underrated on Dirt
Alexander Zverev is somehow often disregarded as a clay-dominant player despite his strong track record on dirt. He sits just a couple points behind Jannik Sinner for the third-highest clay ELO rating in men’s singles tennis, behind Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
This past week he finished runner-up in the German Open, falling to Arthur Fils in the final. And that wasn’t his only strong performance on clay this season. Zverev lost to Alcaraz in the final of the French Open this year as well, dispatching Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur, Holger Rune and Nadal along the way.
Additionally, Zverev has experience in this event. He won the gold medal in 2020 after outlasting Karen Khachanov in the final and Novak Djokovic the round prior. That victory over Novak spoiled the Serbian’s chances of a Golden Slam that year. It was also the first time a German ever won the gold medal in tennis. I actually believe he should be favored over Sinner and Djokovic, so I like the value on this play.
Any Value on Friends Ruud and Nadal at Men’s Olympic Tennis?
Casper Ruud and Rafael Nadal competed as doubles partners at the Swedish Open last week, winning both of their matches before bowing out in the semifinals. “Ruudal,” as the duo is affectionately nicknamed, was short-lived this time around after Nadal could no longer continue in the tournament. Just the day prior to their scheduled match Nadal went 6 hours in a marathon 3-setter with Mariano Navone. Nadal’s singles run ended in the final, where he lost to Nuno Borges of Portugal.
Despite their health issues and lack of results in 2024, both of these athletes are historically dominant on clay. Ruud was only a few sets away from this third-straight trip to the final of the French Open. He appeared to fall ill after taking the first set against Zverev and could not overcome the sickness. Nadal has also carefully managed his workload, giving him the best possible chance to succeed at the Olympics. Helping his case is the 3-set format, which no doubt should help his body battle the heat in Paris this summer.
Ruud, however, typically thrives in longer matches, which may take away from his clay-court advantage. Both of these players seem very boom-or-bust; they could go out earlier in a match where they never even really seem to get started, or they could make a deep run and have a go for gold. At their current odds, I would not blame anyone for taking a shot on Ruud or Nadal.
A Potential Men’s Olympic Tennis Cinderella Story: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas is the 2nd-highest player on clay in the world according to ELO ratings for that surface, making him an intriguing player to win the gold medal in Paris. His quarter-final exit in the French Open came courtesy of the eventual champion Alcaraz. While his temperament can be a bit problematic, his skills are certainly there. Put him in a favorable draw position and there is certainly a strong chance Tsitsipas brings home gold for Greece next week.
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