The top-ranked female tennis players around the world will coalesce this weekend for the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris. Iga Swiatek is a huge favorite to win gold for Poland, and deservedly so. She is dominant on clay, which is the surface for this year’s Games as the famous Stade Roland Garros acts as host. Read on for an expert women’s Olympic tennis prediction and insights into this year’s Olympic tennis betting.
- Women’s tennis (Singles)
- 2024 Summer Olympics
- July 27 to August 3
- Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France
- Peacock, NBC Sports
2024 Women’s Olympic Tennis Betting Odds
Swiatek is a whopping (-200) to win gold next weekend in the same arena where she has hoisted the French Open trophy each of the last 3 years. Considering her current form, the price is probably fair. The next closest competitor is Coco Gauff at (+650), followed by Elena Rybakina at (1100). A third tier of outside contenders consists of Jasmine Paolini, Mirra Andreeva, Naomi Osaka, and Zhang Qinwen.
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Is Swiatek a Lock to Win Gold Medal in Paris?
Iga Swiatek is a now 3-time defending champion of the French Open, the only major on clay and held at Stade Roland Garros. She is also far and away the best player in this tournament, especially with Aryna Sabalenka out. Her raw clay Elo rating is over 250 points over her next best possible opponents, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff. As Elo ratings are calculated to determine win probability, that would give her around an 80% chance of beating either of those opponents.
That equates to a line of (-400) or shorter against anyone she plays at Roland Garros, so it is no surprise she is a huge favorite. To further contextualize her dirt dominance, Swiatek is 132-17 in her career on clay. That’s good for an insane 88.6% win rate. And this season is no exception; she is 21-1 on the year on the surface.
Having already won at Madrid, Rome and Paris, a gold medal just seems another feather in the cap for a player who could very well go down in the history books as the most dominant athlete ever. Her record on clay nears that of Rafael Nadal at the moment, and that is with her playing 3-set matches. Three setters are naturally more volatile since there is less room for error. Nadal had plenty of occasions where he was able to win in 5 sets despite losing 2 in the match.
It is a steep price to pay, but there is really nowhere else to look besides Swiatek across this board. I think BetUS is closer to the true line at (-250), so there is value in backing Iga Swiatek to win it all at (-200) by betting on Bovada.
Coco Gauff Given Best Shot to Upset Swiatek
Coco Gauff has grown into her own over the years. Long gone is the 15-year-old Coco that shocked the world at Wimbledon by taking down one of the queens of tennis in Venus Williams. She finally got her maiden major title in 2023 as the U.S. Open winner and is now ranked #2 in the world. Questions around her forearm continue to swirl, but that shortcoming has not appeared to affect the American.
The designated female flag bearer for Team USA will have a lot on her shoulders this summer. She is slated to appear in all three tennis events she can participate in: Women’s singles, women’s doubles, and mixed doubles. I believe Gauff’s best chance at biting down on a gold medal in 2024 is probably if Swiatek suffers some sort of injury. As the second seed, she will have plenty of time for that possibility to occur before they potentially meet.
If you hate betting favorites and want to root for some restored American glory in the tennis world, look no further than Coco Gauff.
Other Contenders to Look Out for in Women’s Olympic Tennis 2024
Elena Rybakina is the third-biggest favorite on the board and is available at 11:1 at BetUS. The Russian-born Kazakhstani advanced to the semifinals of the Wimbledon less than a month ago. Her clay court campaign this year was also strong, making it to the semis in Madrid and the quarters of the French Open.
A loss to Elina Svitolina in the bronze medal match last time prevented her from medaling, but she was knocking on the door. She is a pretty consistent player especially in the women’s circuit, so a favorable draw could give her the push she needs to threaten Swiatek late in the tournament.
A final longshot that is worth pondering over is Caroline Garcia. The name may fool you, but she is actually French, and will surely have the lion’s share of the crowd supporting her in every match. She may be nearing the end of her career, but rigamortis could give her one more shot at gold. Garcia took down Coco Gauff in Miami and hotshot Jasmine Paolini also this year. If she can put it all together through a six-match span, she will clearly have value at her 66:1 current price.
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