- What: UFC 306 Main Event
- Who: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
- Date: Saturday, September 14, 2024
- Location: Sphere in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Early Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The much anticipated Riyadh Season Noche UFC fight card takes place on Saturday, September 14 from Sphere in Las Vegas. The event, also known as UFC 306, marks the fight promotion’s second celebration of Mexican Independence Day, is headlined by a bantamweight title fight. That matchup finds UFC 135-pound champion Sean O’Malley putting his title on the line against the No. 1 ranked Merab Dvalishvili. Here is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 306.
Sean O’Malley (18-1-0-1) won the UFC bantamweight title in August 2023 with a TKO win over Aljamain Sterling. His first defense of his crown was a unanimous decision win over Marlon “Chito” Vera in March. O’Malley has earned Fight Night bonus awards in his past three outings.
Merab Dvalishvili (17-4) is the top-ranked fighter in the UFC’s 135-pound weight class. He is riding a 10-fight winning streak after starting his UFC run with an 0-2 record. Dvalishvili’s last fight was a February decision win over former two-division UFC champion Henry Cejudo.
Before we look at the best bets for the Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili matchup on the UFC 306 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 306 main event: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili betting picks
Sean O’Malley betting breakdown
Sean O’Malley has accumulated 12 knockout wins in his MMA career. Of those KO victories, six have come since he joined the UFC in 2017. The 29-year-old packs a lot of power into his 5-foot-11-inch frame. Unlike many other power punchers, O’Malley is also an active and accurate striker. The champion throws most of his strikes at the head of his foes, but he isn’t afraid to go to the body if the opportunity is there. He can be flashy sometimes, but his defense, footwork, and movement make him an elusive target for his opponents.
O’Malley is the second most accurate striker in the history of the UFC’s bantamweight division, landing 62 percent of his significant strike attempts. He’s also second in the division’s history in strikes landed per minute at 7.67 and first in striking differential at plus 4.24
If there is a weakness in O’Malley’s game, he struggles to block leg kicks. Those low leg kicks allowed Vera to pick up the win in their first meeting. Also, O’Malley’s 62 percent takedown defense will be tested in this matchup.
Merab Dvalishvili betting breakdown
Merab Dvalishvili might have the best cardio in the UFC. He is the best-conditioned athlete in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Dvalishvili sets a relentless pace, using non-stop chain wrestling to wear out his opponents and get them to the mat. He is like a wet blanket, sticking to his opponent’s back and never giving up control. How good is Dvalishvili’s wrestling? He scored five takedowns on 11 attempts against Cejudo, an Olympic gold medal winner in wrestling, while racking up more than four minutes of control time in their three-round contest. He’s also active in his striking on the mat and in the clinch. He only lands a few significant strikes in those positions, but his high output is meant to keep his opponent under control and negate their offense.
On the feet, Dvalishvili has decent striking, with reasonably high output, but his striking is mainly to serve his wrestling. Of his 10 UFC wins, nine have come by way of decision. In short, Dvalishvili is a grinder.
Dvalishvili has a nine-fight UFC winning streak at bantamweight, which is tied for the longest winning streak in the division’s history. He is also second all-time in the division in control time at 1:04:02. No one in the division has landed more total strikes than Dvalishvili at 1,736, and no one comes close to his 66 takedowns.
Dvalishvili lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 41 percent. His striking defense is 57 percent, and he gets hit 2.37 times per minute. Dvalishvili lands 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 36 percent. His takedown defense is 80 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 306 main event: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Sean O’Malley has a height and reach advantage in this five-round fight, so there’s a chance he will touch up Merab Dvalishvili in the striking department. However, the takedowns are an enormous equalizer for Dvalishvili. Petr Yan scored six takedowns on 13 attempts in three rounds against O’Malley and had 5:44 of control time. Yan outstruck O’Malley 97 to 91 in total strikes. O’Malley won that fight where he had a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage by split decision. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili picked up 11 takedowns on 49(!) attempts against Yan and had 6:53 of control time in 25 minutes. He also outstruck Yan in total strikes 202 to 87. O’Malley has a five-inch height and four-inch reach advantage over Dvalishvili.
The betting pick is for Merab Dvalishvili to grind out a five-round decision win over Sean O’Malley and capture the UFC bantamweight title.
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