Sporting began its trek to defend its 2023-24 Primeira Liga title this August, winning their first 3 games on the spin. They will contend for Portugal’s top silverware with Porto and Benfica, the country’s perennial championship candidates. Joining them in the top flight are Santa Clara, Nacional, and AVS, replacing relegated clubs Vizela, Chaves and Portimonense. Continue reading for an expert Primeira Liga betting preview and explore Primeira Liga stats, tips and a breakdown of Porto’s odds.
- Primeira Liga/Liga Portugal
- August 9, 2024 to May 18, 2025
- 18 clubs, 3 relegations each year
- Defending champions: Sporting
- 34 matches for each club
- ESPN+
Primeira Liga Betting: Who is the Favorite?
Sporting are the favorites to win the title in 2024-25 at (+125). Porto and Benfica follow behind at (+175) and (+225). Braga represents a dark horse at (+2500). All other teams are (+10000) or greater, with newly promoted teams like Nacional and Casa Pia even reaching odds as high as (+150000).
Want to better understand the soccer futures market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about soccer betting lines in 2024.
Why Sporting Are Deserved Favorites in 2024-25
Sporting are tabbed as the best team in the Primeira Liga according to current odds, and it’s not hard to see why. Last season’s defending champions are returning a majority of their squad in 2024-25. Notably, Golden Boot winner Viktor Gyokeres is back to man the offense, already contributing to six goals this season. They are now unbeaten in their last 23 games in Liga Portugal, with just two of those being draws.
My projections indicate Sporting deserved to accrue just over 84 points last term, with Benfica and Porto following behind at 80 and 79, respectively. Given the current odds, I believe there is some betting value on Sporting to win it all. They should probably be odds-on favorites to win, so at (+125), there is some room for error, but keep your wager small.
Porto and Benfica: The Other Two of Portugal’s Big Three
Benfica, Sporting, and Porto represent the Big Three in Portugal, a premier trio of established and financially well-endowed franchises that have dominated in their country. Only twice in the history of Portuguese soccer has a club outside of these elite three ever won the championship. Benfica and Sporting, out of Lisbon, have won the Primeira Liga title 38 and 20 times, respectively. Porto has done so 30 times, giving them the 2nd-highest total.
Boavista was the most recent “other” team to manage a title victory, coming in 2000-01. Before that, you have to go back to Belenenses in 1945-46 to find another Cinderella story. This domination by the Big Three has led to fans often having a “first club,” being either Benfica, Porto or Sporting. They may support another local team, but the tradition is rare. Such superiority has caused the Primeira Liga to suffer from lack of attendance and viewership in non-Big Three matches.
It’s possible that this may change in the future. Braga has become a more prominent member at the top, and TV rights deals are being discussed with major networks. Such an influx of cash can be (literally) a game-changer for a growing league, with the income trickling down to the smaller clubs who can afford better players, coaches, and infrastructure. While strong rivalries are always entertaining, a lack of parity is never good for any sports league.
Primeira Liga Betting: Can Braga Break the Drought?
Besides the 3 big names at the top, only Braga seems to have a fair chance at earning silverware in the regular season. While never having won a title before, they currently sit in 4th on the table through three games. That position is a build-up of years of hard work, having finished in the top 4 for seven consecutive seasons. They consistently appear to be just outside the cusp of glory.
Braga let former Manchester City and Sevilla attacking midfielder Rony Lopes depart last week. While having little experience with either club, he showed signs of skill while on loan at Monaco, Lille and Nice in Ligue 1. With just 2 goals in 23 appearances for Braga, he couldn’t carve a role in an offense stacked with talent.
Simon Banza’s 21 goals for Braga put him in 2nd for the Golden Boot last season behind Gyokeres of Sporting. If he can continue his success in Portugal, Braga have an outside shot at winning it all. They must take advantage of their fixtures against the Big Three to spoil the party.
Any Other Potential Spoilers?
Betting on any other team below Braga is really more of a Hail Mary than anything else. Realistically, these teams have an extremely low chance of winning the league and picking the right one to do so would be outrageously lucky. It is really a losing battle taking teams at such high odds given the house edge is probably close to 30-40%.
For example, Famalicao, the team with the 5th-highest odds of winning it all, are priced at (+10000). That represents just a 1% chance. Nacional, at (+150000), are being given just a 0.1% chance. If you want to be contrarian, bet Braga or nothing at all.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
Top Sportsbooks for Primeira Liga Betting
Explore some of the best sportsbooks for online betting below. Each website is reviewed by My Top Sportsbooks for user experience, customer service, new member promos, and more.
