Major League Soccer’s 2024 season is nearing its end as teams are back from summer vacation. There is still plenty of silverware up for grabs, but Columbus took home the grand prize in last week’s Leagues Cup finale. The MLS Cup, Top Goalscorer, and the Western Conference title are all still in the air. Continue reading to access an expert MLS betting preview and explore stats, tips and a breakdown of the odds for the MLS Cup.
- Major League Soccer
- Regular season and playoffs
- 29 teams
- Regular season ends October 19
- United States and Canada
- Apple TV, MLS Season Pass
MLS Betting: Odds for the MLS Cup
With Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez, Inter Miami is much favored to win the MLS Cup. The Herons are (+160) to take home their second trophy (the League Cup, 2023) and their first MLS Cup. LAFC and their local rivals LA Galaxy are the biggest favorites in the Western Conference at +600 and +900, respectively. Cincinnati and Columbus come next, both at (+1200).
Want to better understand the soccer futures market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about MLS betting sites in 2024.
Is There Value on Inter Miami?
Inter Miami’s good odds of winning the MLS Cup (+160) at the end of the season speak something about their ability to win a tournament. When they return for the postseason, Lionel Messi should be well enough to play, and they’ll probably have the best overall seed in the tournament. Even without Messi, they still appeared to be quite powerful.
When I predicted the MLS prospects early this year, I was mistaken about their chances of taking home the championship. I thought Miami would suffer without Messi because he was prone to injuries. While I was right about Messi’s injuries, Miami looks very much like the team they were when Messi was starting. They should easily win the first round of the MLS Cup playoffs in the best-of-three format.
However, I still think Miami has far too high a price to win three single-elimination ties at (+160). They’ll probably host these, but I think Columbus, the Red Bulls, the LAFC, or even the LA Galaxy could defeat them with a solid showing. With only +0.33 xGD, they aren’t even very good at home. I suggest against betting on Messi and company.
Why LAFC Should Be Big Favorites to Win West
With 47 total points, LAFC is presently ranked second in the Western Conference. Their position is intriguing, though, because they are two games behind everyone else. This implies that they have the opportunity to gain six points in those two remaining games, putting them ahead of the LA Galaxy by 53 points. They have this edge because of the upside, even if it is by no means assured.
In addition, they have other supporting analytics and currently have the greatest goal differential in Major League Soccer. They are over 25% better at home than the next closest team in the league, the NY Red Bulls, with an amazing +1.33 xGD. Aside from Columbus, they are the only other team with a positive xGD when playing away.
With a strong schedule for their next four games, LAFC should be able to make a run at winning the Western Conference if they are aware that they are near. They travel to Vancouver and Kansas City in addition to hosting San Jose and St. Louis. The aforementioned trio of teams occupy the bottom three spots in the league standings.
Even though LAFC is currently the frontrunner, I believe they should be favored to win the West because Olivier Giroud, a recently recruited French star, will be joining them in the latter stages. I’ll support them in doing so for a full unit.
MLS Betting: The Unique Situation With Denis Bouanga
This season, the Top Goalscorer award will be decided by a single goal, since three players are within one goal of the lead. Denis Bouanga of LAFC has sixteen, while Christian Benteke of DC United and Cristian Arango of Real Salt Lake are tied at seventeen. Even with Lionel Messi currently sidelined due to injury, Luis Suarez should have plenty of opportunities to compete, and Daniel Gazdag leads a potent Philadelphia Union assault.
For me, though, Bouanga is the one who leaps off the board. In contrast to most of the MLS, LAFC still has two games remaining, as was previously noted. Olivier Giroud is now the team’s starter, thus Bouanga will have fewer opportunities, but he still has those two games against his opponents. That highlights the potential for a player ranked third on the likeliest to finish top goalscorer at just one goal behind currently.
Why You Should Take Bouanga To Be Top Goalscorer
Furthermore, of all the players in the league right now, Bouanga has achieved the highest expected goals. But compared to Christian Benteke, Cristian Arango, and Lionel Messi, he has been less effective. However, volume wins Top Goalscorer; efficiency does not. Arango, along with Messi, is dealing with an injury at the moment.
But use caution when placing bets on this. Bouanga is available at BetUS with a +400 wager in the Top Goalscorer market. Bouanga should be taken in a market designated as “Top Goalscorer” as opposed to “Golden Boot.” This is due to the fact that assists are used as the first tiebreaker when two players are tied for the Golden Boot. Bouanga trails Messi and Cristian Arango in assists.
In a tiebreaker situation, Bounga might still win the Golden Boot, but your wager is becoming more speculative. I would only wager on Bouanga to be the Top Goalscorer unless you can find a price significantly higher than the (+400) provided at most bookmakers in a Golden Boot market.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
Top Sportsbooks for Odds for the MLS Cup
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