- What: UFC 307 Main Event
- Who: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
- Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024
- Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPNews), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view fight card, UFC 307, takes place on Saturday, October 5, at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. In the main event of the ESPN+ PPV card, UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira defends his title against Khalil Rountree Jr. Here is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 306.
Alex Pereira (11-2) is a former UFC middleweight champion. He claimed the UFC light heavyweight crown in his second fight at 205 pounds for the UFC with his win over Prochazka. Pereira defended that belt in April with a first-round knockout win over another ex-UFC champion in Jamahal Hill. His second title defense took place in June when he knocked out former champion Jiri Prochazka. Pereira has nine wins via knockout.
Khalil Rountree Jr (14-5-0-1) is riding a five-fight winning streak ahead of UFC 307. That run follows a stretch where Rountree went 1-3 between late 2018 and early 2021. He is the No. 8 fighter in the official UFC 205-pound rankings. His most recent win was a December 2023 KO of former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith. Rountree also has nine KO victories.
Before we look at the best bets for Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. on the UFC 307 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 307 main event: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. betting picks
UFC 307: Alex Pereira Betting Breakdown
A former two-division Glory kickboxing champion, Alex Pereira entered the UFC with elite striking skills. Those abilities, and his history with Israel Adesanya under the Glory banner, earned him a quick title shot in the middleweight division. Pereira did not waste his opportunity, as he knocked out Adesanya to claim the 185-pound title. He gave the title back to Adesanya in his next outing. Pereira then moved up to the more natural weight of 205 pounds, where he claimed that division’s title in two UFC fights.
Pereira’s striking is top-notch. He has power and speed in his strikes. Especially noteworthy are Pereira’s calf kicks, which are devastating in their power but also nearly impossible to check because of how fast he throws those strikes. The champ often goes to the legs, landing 25 percent or more of his total strikes in his past three fights to his opponent’s legs. Those heavy leg strikes, which he throws early and often, serve to set up his power strikes to the head.
If Pereira has a weakness, it’s his grappling, but judging from Rountree’s history, that should be of little concern for Pereira, who has been improving in his grappling as he gets more UFC experience.
Pereira averages 5.23 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 63 percent. He absorbs 3.51 significant strikes per minute with a defense rate of 51 percent.
UFC 307: Khalil Rountree Jr. Betting Breakdown
A member of the UFC roster since 2016, Khalil Rountree Jr. was a surprise booking for a title fight, as he is coming off a recent suspension for a tainted supplement. Rountree was booked against former champion Jamahal Hill when he self-reported that a supplement he was taking contained DHEA, which is banned at all times under the UFC anti-doping program. His suspension expires on September 18.
Rountree is a striker. He is powerful and effective and can mix up his targets and techniques. However, his striking arsenal is not as well developed or as deep as that of his opponent. Making things more difficult for Rountree is that he is giving up height and reach in this contest. Rountree’s best bet is to catch Pereira with a counter, but his speed is questionable, and with the champ’s long history of facing strikers in kickboxing and MMA, that will be a difficult task for the betting underdog.
Rountree lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 39 percent. His striking defense is 50 percent, and he gets hit 4.00 times per minute.
Best Bets: UFC 307 Main Event – Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira is a better striker than Khalil Rountree Jr. He has superior technique, greater speed, and stronger defense. There’s a chance that Pereira could take Rountree lightly, but that’s a small chance and nothing that should give one confidence that Rountree will be able to pull off an upset in the main event of UFC 307.
The betting pick is for Alex Pereira to defeat Khalil Rountree Jr. via knockout at UFC 307.
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