Monaco faces Barcelona this midweek in each team’s first game of the Champions League, and their first-ever game under the new league phase format. Barcelona have been cruising under Hansi Flick, winning all of their games to start the year and rightfully sitting atop the La Liga table. Monaco is undefeated as well so far, picking up 10 points in their first four games and conceding just once. Read on for an expert Monaco vs Barcelona betting preview and explore AS Monaco stats, tips and a full match breakdown.
- UEFA Champions League
- League phase
- AS Monaco vs FC Barcelona
- Thursday, September 19, 2024, 3 PM EST
- Fubo, Paramount+, ViX
AS Monaco vs Barcelona Betting Odds
Monaco are underdogs at home in their European curtain-raiser. The hosts are (+330) to win on Thursday, while Barcelona are odds-on favorites at (-125). A draw can be bought at the current market-best line of (+323) at BetUS.
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Champions League betting.
New Champions League Format for ‘24-25 Season
The UEFA Champions League has had a makeover since we last saw it in June. The new format does away with the group stage in favor of a “league phase.” This initial phase splits the 35 participants into four pots of nine teams each based on their UEFA club coefficient. Coincidentally, the draw this year took place in Monaco.
Upon conclusion of the league phase, in which teams have played eight different opponents (four home and four away), all clubs will be ranked 1 to 36 based on points. The top 8 earn automatic qualification into the round of 16. The next 16 enter a knockout phase play-offs with a double-leg format. The winners are then matched up again in the Round of 16, while the losers, along with the last 12 from the league phase, are officially eliminated.
This is purely speculative, but the new format could possibly introduce more draws and low-scoring matches into the Champions League. The larger pool to compete with means a lower bar to advance to the knockout stage. I would not be surprised to see more conservative styles of play from coaches who see the benefits in avoiding losses.
FC Barcelona Betting Lines Slowly Adjusting for Dominant Start
FC Barcelona are now under new hands. Xavi is out after a lackluster 2023-24 campaign (to Barca’s standards) saw them exit the Champions League unceremoniously and defeated by Real Madrid in both El Clasicos. Hansi Flick, the former German national team manager, has found himself at the helm in Camp Nou.
Flick was an unlikely candidate for the Barcelona job, not just because of his nationality but also his role in the 8-2 drubbing of Barcelona in the 2019-2020 Champions League. Barcelona fans will likely remember that infamous day and the opposing manager who made it all happen. Now he leads Barca in his “Flicki-flaka” style, a tactical preference similar to the Spanish national team and Barcelona’s “tiki-taka” play, just with a twist of heavy pressing.
Barcelona have won 5 straight games to start the season, scoring 17 times and conceding four times. That dwarfs the next-closed team, Celta Vigo, with 13 goals scored. Hansi Flick’s style emphasizes a high defensive line and short passing lines. That creates quick opportunities to catch opponents on the break, but also puts a ton of pressure on his fullbacks. Any successful penetration past the line and there is little resistance in front of goal.
Xavi’s Barcelona excelled defensively, favoring possession and dropping back farther when out of possession than Flick prefers. What has resulted in this dynamic is a delta between the public perception of Barcelona’s defense and what is really on the field this season. I believe the total lines in many of Barcelona’s games have not caught up to this shift in tactics.
AS Monaco vs Barcelona Betting Prediction and Free Pick
Barcelona has been on a tear in 2024-25, racking up goals under Flick and setting themselves up to potentially overthrow Real Madrid for the La Liga title, or at least fight to the bitter end. They enter the Champions League with the exact same intentions in mind. But to earn a top-8 spot and guarantee yourself a place in the Round of 16, you must not only earn points but also likely score enough to win any tiebreakers on goal differential.
We just saw a plethora of high-scoring matches on Tuesday across Europe.
This AS Monaco vs Barcelona match should be no exception. This game will take place in the city-state of Monaco.
Typically, there is value in betting on the over in contests where the home team is the underdog, which is the case here. That is because the home team’s odds of scoring are usually too deflated, and yet they should still lose, leading to many 2-1 outcomes or greater.
Barcelona’s defense is overrated on Flick based on carryover perceptions of their backline from Xavi’s time managing the club. They will likely concede on Thursday but have the potential to score much more. The line is moving quickly on this match, so hurry up and take the over while it is still available at a flat line of 3. I am going just a half unit here since some of the value has already been eaten up by sharps.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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