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Steve Huffman to get engaged in 2024
Last month, we discussed Reddit getting an IPO and its ability to create interest from investors and site users. Oddsmakers have provided a unique prop regarding the CEO of Reddit, Steve Huffman.
We can wager on whether Huffman will get engaged by the end of 2024. Let’s learn more about Huffman before we dive into this wager about his personal life.
Steve Huffman to be CEO at end of 2024
We continue with another exciting prop market about Steve Huffman’s future.
This time, it’s his future as Reddit’s CEO by the year’s end.
This one is as difficult as projecting whether Huffman will get engaged by the end of the year.
Oddsmakers have priced Huffman’s remaining CEO at -500, with him leaving at +300.
From @Breakingviews: CEO Steve Huffman is setting aside shares for Reddit users in the social media platform’s upcoming IPO. But some have taken to its famous ‘Wall Street Bets’ forum to threaten to short the stock, suggesting his plan might backfire, says @AnitaRamaswamy pic.twitter.com/59cVmgCSO9
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 5, 2024
The implied probability of -500 is around 83%, indicating that the oddsmakers are confident that Huffman will remain CEO.
+300 odds indicate an implied probability of about 25%, and if I’m being honest, that even feels high.
Even though this is another boring answer, I would have to agree with the oddsmakers again and wager on Huffman’s continued CEO ship at Reddit.
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Reddit to post a profit by the end of 2024
The final option we will explore regarding Reddit is betting on its profitability by the end of the year.
Forecasting Reddit’s stock trajectory remains challenging without access to its initial quarterly reports as a public company.
Reviewing the past month for Reddit doesn’t show much financial promise. Since going public a month ago, Reddit’s stock has decreased 19%!
Three Wall Street analysts covering Reddit anticipate a 25% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in revenue from 2023 to 2026.
“Reddit has never turned a profit in nearly 20 years, but filed to go public anyway”
Seems about right https://t.co/QkYtkKz13c
— Inverse Cramer (Not Jim Cramer) (@CramerTracker) April 12, 2024
However, this consensus forecast may fluctuate significantly as more analysts cover the stock.
Yet, I believe Reddit’s growth may be slower than anticipated due to struggles in stabilizing user growth, monetizing its user base, and fortifying its competitive edge against major search engines, social media platforms, and AI chatbots.
These hurdles could lead Reddit to underperform compared to more resilient social media companies like Meta Platforms and Pinterest over the next five years as it endeavors to demonstrate the sustainability of its business model.
This is the primary reason that oddsmakers are not presenting a “NO” option on this prop.
If you disagree with the oddsmakers, you can bet on Reddit to be profitable by year’s end at +800 odds. The implied probability of +800 is around 11%.
I am not challenging the oddsmakers on a lopsided prop like that.
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