The French Open has begun and many people are expecting an easy road to another French Open victory for the world number one Iga Swiatek. The Polish starlet has won back-to-back championships in the second major of the year, with a third potentially on the way. Can anyone stop her? Continue reading to view an expert Roland-Garros betting prediction and explore tips for French Open women’s odds in 2024.
- Event: French Open (Women’s)
- Date: May 26 to June 9, 2024
- Location: Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France
- TV: NBC Sports, Peacock, Tennis Channel
2024 Women’s French Open Favorites
Iga Swiatek is an overwhelming favorite to win the French Open, so much so that you could get plus-money to bet the field against her. Her (-160) price tag is largely due to her previous success at Roland Garros, a venue she has won at 3 times already in her young career. At 22, she appears to be headed towards Rafael Nadal-levels of dominance at the French Open. Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, and Coco Gauff are the challengers with the closest chances of knocking Swiatek from her lofty clay perch.
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our tennis betting tips and learn about French Open betting odds.
Iga Swiatek Massive Favorite to Win 4th French Open Title
Iga Swiatek, off an impressive title win at the Italian Open, has been labeled an odds-on favorite to continue her dominance in the only clay major on tour. Swiatek defeated seeded opponents Madison Keys, Coco Gauff, and Aryna Sabalenka all in straight sets to collect her 21st career trophy. To begin her French Open campaign she dispatched Leolia Jeanjean in quick succession and now faces Naomi Osaka in the second round. Swiatek is not expected to face much pressure from Osaka, who is returning from maternity leave last year, nor any other opponent until at least the semifinals realistically.
Swiatek has seen her odds of winning in Paris jump significantly as a result of her victory in Rome, but is it really justified? Sabalenka pushed her to 3 tight sets on clay in Madrid the tournament prior, and Rybakina shocked her on clay at Stuttgart before that. Odds this short are tough to get to for any future, and I believe there is value to be found in other places. While it feels inevitable Swiatek wins, getting to an implied 62% of winning the next 6 matches seems a tad too high.
Aryna Sabalenka Always in the Mix
Barring a series of subpar performances following the unexpected death of her former partner, Sabalenka has looked like a superhero in 2024. Indeed, she advanced to the final of the Brisbane International in preparation of her Australian Open win in January. After a lukewarm February, March and April, she bounced back with two finals losses to Iga Swiatek at Madrid and Rome. Now back in a Grand Slam, Sabalenka seems to be in peak form to potentially secure a 2nd straight major win this calendar year.
While Swiatek is known for her clay dominance, the Belarusian often gets underlooked for her ability to contend on the dirt. I believe Sabalenka is not getting enough credit due to falling short both times in the finals. At (+550), you would have to like your ticket if she does get there again, even against the Polish #1. I recommend playing her small here as the rest of the world lays heavy juice on Swiatek, who was at even money prior to an Italian Open run that didn’t prove all that much really.
Lefty Vondrousova a Dark Horse at Roland Garros
Marketa Vondrousova is a left-handed player from Czechia who is playing at her best at the moment, sitting at #6 in the world. The 24-year-old made it to the final of the 2019 edition of the French Open at just 19 years of age. She has also proven her worth in other majors, including winning Wimbledon last year and advancing to the quarterfinals at the US Open as well. At a remarkable 101-36 record as a professional on clay, there should be little hesitation to back the lefty to go at least a few rounds into this tournament.
And why not further? She has proven her ability to win in clutch moments and has given elite players problems with her forehand. It is true that she has somewhat struggled recently, at least to get solid results in May. But the market seems to have more than adjusted for that. (+8000) is simply too long a number for a former major winner that has made it to the showcase event here in Paris before and is still in the prime of her career.
Daria Kasatkina a Longshot for French Open Women’s Odds
A final candidate you may wish to consider in your French Open Women’s portfolio is Daria Kasatkina. The former Roland Garros semifinalist loves playing on the dirt (see her 131-54 career clay record) and is sitting at 11th in the world at the moment. I trust her to take care of business in the early rounds. In fact, she is 20-8 at the French Open in her career. Perhaps she can make a 7-match run to earn her first-ever major win in an era where besides Swiatek and Sabalenka, women’s tennis tournaments are up for grabs.
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