Polymarket has risen to become a popular prediction market platform for users who wish to place live crypto-based wagers on current events, like the presidential election and DNC. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
Polymarket wagers on Obama’s speech exceeded $384,000
With excitement for the Democratic National Convention (DNC) reaching levels not seen since 2008, the Polymarket betting market opened to predict what topics former president Barack Obama would speak on. Cryptocurrency gamblers placed live bets of more than $384,000 on Obama’s predicted topics, with bets saying he would discuss the Affordable Care Act, President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, climate change, democracy, and even his wife, former First Lady Michelle Obama.
in a strange move, the Polymarket bettors did not list Kamala Harris as one of the predicted topics
These were safe bets, to be sure, and the betting markets adjusted accordingly. Many of the predicted topics were broad enough to almost guarantee Obama would reference them, especially any references to Joe Biden and Donald Trump. In a strange move, the Polymarket bettors did not list Kamala Harris as one of the predicted topics, despite Obama being brought to speak at the DNC primarily in support of Harris’ run for president.
Ultimately in his nearly 40-minute speech, as reported by Time Magazine: “Obama honored President Joe Biden; championed Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz; warned of the perils of a second Donald Trump presidency; and encouraged Democrats to prepare for an arduous path to maintaining the White House.”
Election bets predict whether RFK, Jr. will withdraw
Outside of the DNC, Polymarket bets now include wagers on whether presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will withdraw his candidacy. While a chance remains that Kennedy will run as an Independent and hope for a sleeper victory, if bettors notice a near-certainty that he will withdraw, wagers may soon include who he will endorse as the next president. Markets are not yet certain whether he would endorse Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, or an independent candidate.
over $86m in cryptocurrency has been wagered on Trump
As of August 22, a separate Polymarket contest on who will win the 2024 presidential election has placed former president Donald Trump’s chances at 52%, while Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances stand at 47%. At the time of this writing, over $86m in cryptocurrency has been wagered on Trump. On the other side, close to $78m has been bet on Harris to win the presidency.
Polymarket becomes premiere current events betting market
Why trust Polymarket? Over the last few months, Polymarket has risen to become a popular prediction market platform for users who wish to place live crypto-based wagers on current events. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund backed the platform in 2020.
Since then, the platform has drawn a heavy interest from crypto gamblers hoping to win big by betting on national and world events, as well as other salient topics of the year. As of August 2024, the platform accounts for over 85% of all global election predictions made online.
