- What: WBC, WBA and WBO Super Middleweight World Titles
- Who: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga
- Date: Saturday, September 14, 2024
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena
- How to Watch: Prime Video, PBC PPV, DAZN
Canelo Alvarez puts his WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight titles on the line against Edgar Berlanga on Saturday, September 14, when the two meet at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Alvarez is the top-rated fighter in the 168-pound division according to The Ring. Meanwhile, Berlanga is at No. 7 in those rankings. Below is some background information on the two competitors before we look at the betting breakdown of their super middleweight title fight.
Canelo Alvarez (61-2-2 with 39 knockouts) is coming off four straight unanimous decision title defenses against Gennady Golovkin, John Ryder, Jermell Charlo, and Jaime Munguia following his May 2022 loss to Dmitry Bivol in a light heavyweight title fight. That loss was Alvarez’s first setback since he dropped a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather in 2013. Alvarez’s win over Ryder came in May 2023. He faced Munguia in May of this year.
Edgar Berlanga (22-0 with 17 KOs) ended a run of five consecutive decision wins in February when he knocked out Padraig McCrory in the sixth round. Berlanga is ranked at No. 8 in the WBC, No. 1 in the WBA, and No. 4 in the WBO.
The IBF title is not on the line in this bout because Alvarez was stripped of that title because his defense of that title against the No. 1 ranked William Scull, was overdue.
Before looking at the betting odds and picks for Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga, check out the best boxing betting sites and where you can find the best boxing picks.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga betting picks
Canelo Alvarez betting breakdown
The one-time undisputed super middleweight world champ, Canelo Alvarez, has been facing the best of the best for a long while. In fact, his 2013 loss to Floyd Mayweather came a few months after Munguia’s first pro fight.
At 34, Alvarez has started to slow, which is not a shock considering how long he’s spent at the top of the boxing world. Even though Alvarez is not throwing or landing as many punches as he once did, his counterpunching abilities and his capacity to exploit openings make him one of the scariest fighters to compete against.
At issue for Alvarez heading into this matchup is the worry that he will never face tough competitors David Benavidez and David Morrell, who both have moved up to light heavyweight while waiting for fights against Alvarez to materialize.
Alvarez is the better boxer. He is a more complete, skilled, experienced, and powerful fighter. Despite his age and the mileage he has accumulated over the years, Alvarez is a dangerous fighter because of his countering, ability to make reads on his opponent, and exceptional boxing IQ. He can make an opponent fight his kind of fight.
Edgar Berlanga betting breakdown
Edgar Berlanga started his pro boxing career in 2016. In his first four years in the ring, he went 16-0 with 16 knockouts. All those knockouts came in the first round. Over the next two years, he picked up five decision wins. Berlanga got back to scoring knockouts in February when he stopped Padraig McCrory in the sixth round of their 12-round matchup in Florida. The 27-year-old from Brooklyn has never fought for a major title before booking his matchup opposite Alvarez.
Berlanga has reduced his aggression over the years and begun using his boxing skills and fight IQ more than his power and speed. That’s a good thing. However, this fight is an enormous step up in competition for Berlanga and one he might not be ready for at this point in his career. I expect that he will start to get frustrated by his lack of success against the elite-level Alvarez in this fight, and that will result in him allowing Alvarez to find more openings than he would if Berlanga remained focused.
Berlanga is the bigger man. He needs to do everything he can in this contest to keep the champ on the outside and not engage him in a slugfest or allow Alvarez to get in close. He can make that happen via his reach and by employing better footwork. However, that’s a big ask for a young fighter who was known as a KO artist.
Best bets for Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga
Look for Alvarez to take advantage of Berlanga when his cardio begins to lag, and he gets frustrated by the champion’s skill advantage.
The betting pick is for Canelo Alvarez to beat Edgar Berlanga by knockout in the fight’s second half.
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